'Today all tea
vendors are feeling proud and walking with their heads high' remarked the Prime
Minestrial candidate Narendra Modi, as he addressed a pumped up crowd of BJP
workers during their national conclave recently held at the Ramlila Maidan in
New Delhi. But will these tea vendors be able to remark that 'one among us went
on to become the PM of the country is what remains to be seen.
The recent
campaign of a big automobile company says 'Dream Big.' Surely, Modi has big
dreams. His journey from a tea vendor, to an ordinary pracharak for the RSS, to
a chief minister and now a candidate to lead the nation is nothing short of a
fairy tale. He may have done wonders for the development of his state Gujarat
(atleast that is what appears to the eye) but will he be able to do it at a Pan
India level is a subject of contention. But the biggest question among all of
this is 'Will he ever become a PM in the first place?'
The world's
largest democracy gears up for its five yearly circus in a couple of months.
There is no doubt in admiting that Modi enjoys unprecedented popularity in
western india and the Hindu hiterland in the north. However, it is not about
the popularity that he enjoys but the normal voter or the 'aam aadmi' that has
been converted into a brand by a megalomaniac CM in the national capital. This
aam aadmi is more unpredictable than the Pakistani Cricket Team. This was
evident during the circus of 2004, when the media went ga ga over a clean sweep
by the BJP, but it was this aam aadmi who poured kerosene on the media
predictions and brought the congress to power and set alight the same in 2009
when there was a prediction of a hung parliament.
The BJP have
gone all out for their 'mission 272.' However, the biggest factor that can dent
their as well as Modi's chances is their weak presence in South India. The four
south indian states contribute a total of 155 out of the 543 lok sabha seats,
hence the BJP cannot dare to ignore them. The problem lies in Modi hardly
having any presence in this part of the country. You never see him doing a
rally out of his comfort zone. He did make a last ditch effort to save BJP's
sagging fortunes in Karnataka before the assembly polls last year, but failed
miserably. Jaganmohan Reddy has created a huge sympathy wave in Andhra Pradesh,
people are in awe of 'Amma' Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, BJP and Modi never
existed in Kerala. However, in a smart move, they have managed to get BS
Yeddyurappa back on board in Karnataka but is it for the beter or worse, only
time will tell.
Like in the US,
the fortunes of a president change with the result of Florida parliamentary,
similar is the case with India where the fortunes of a party get decided on how
well the fare in Uttar Pradesh which sends the maximum of almost 80 MPs to the
Lok Sabha. The people of UP keep shuttling around between the regional players
Mulayam Singh Yadav and Behanji Mayawati; the former who sends his ministers on
a foreign trip in the name of study tour and himself enjoys bollywood starts
dancing at his feet while his masses die a miserable death in relief camps in
Muzaffarnagar, while the latter is forever busy in making her own statues and
memorial parks out of public money! Modi needs to get his act together here if
he wants any momentum going in his favour. Orrissa is another state where it
will be difficult for Modi to get past its erstwhile ruler Naveen Patnaik.
One thing that
goes in favour of Modi and the BJP is the severe anti - incumbancy factor that
the congress is suffering from at the moment. Scams tumbling out of their
closet one after another and their dismal performance in the recent assembly
elections have not done their image any good.
Even if in an
ideal scenario, BJP do manage to get past the 272 mark, it is upto their
Dhamatma or Godfather, the RSS to put their hand on his head and offiially make
him the PM. For someone who is well known for their caste bias, they may not
want to see a low caste individual ruling over them. On the flip side, if the
risk the proposition of vetoing Modi's coronation, it may well be the end of
the BJP in Gujarat where no one would dare compete against him considering his
immense popularity.
